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| With perspectives on money and investing that often contradict conventional wisdom, Robert Kiyosaki has earned a reputation for straight talk, irreverence and courage. His point of view that ‘old’ advice – get a good job, save money, get out of debt, invest for the long term, and diversify – is ‘bad’ (both obsolete and flawed) advice, challenges the status quo. Robert is the author of The New York Times bestseller Rich Dad Poor Dad.
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| Since 2002, Michael Maloney has specialized in education on monetary history, economics, and financial literacy. He is widely regarded as an expert on economic cycles. Michael is the owner and founder of GoldSilver.com , an online precious metals dealership. GoldSilver.com provides invaluable research and commentary for its clients, assisting them in their wealth building endeavors. Since 2005 Michael has been the precious metals investment advisor to Robert Kiyosaki. He is the author of Guide to Investing in Gold and Silver.
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| Richard Duncan is the author of The Dollar Crisis: Causes , Consequences, Cures – the bestseller that accurately predicted the global economic crisis that began in 2008. His latest book is The Corruption of Capitalism – A strategy to rebalance the global economy and restore sustainable growth, Duncan has worked as a financial sector specialist for the World Bank in Washington, DC. He also worked as a consultant for the IMF in Thailand during the Asian Crisis and is now chief economist at Blackhorse Asset Management. |
As the middle class gets smaller and smaller, more of the tax burden will fall on highly compensated individuals. This is especially true of highly compensated employees and professionals. The tax laws will always favor business owners and investors because they provide jobs and housing.
As Social Security and Medicare go further and further into a deficit, more and more taxes will have to be raised to pay for this deficit. These taxes will fall primarily on highly compensated employees and professionals.
The sooner you start learning about and planning for the coming inflation and higher taxes, the less you will be affected by inflation and the lower your taxes will be.
Rich Dad’s Advisors: Guide to Investing In Gold and Silver: Protect Your Financial Future
With inflation, middle income earners will be pushed into higher tax brackets and will lose many of their deductions just as many people have become part of the alternative minimum tax (AMT) system through inflation.
Tax laws are basically the same throughout the world. They favor the entrepreneur and active investor and punish the employee, self employed, and casual investor. Wherever you are in the world, your taxes will be impacted by the inflationary practices of the United States and other countries.
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A recent article by Robert Kiyosaki entitled Preparing for the Worst caught my eye. After all, isn’t this sound financial advice for all of us? That’s why we Fools have things like emergency funds.
The article, however, wasn’t about wills, life insurance, or anything like that (which is what I was expecting based on the title), but rather a list of reasons why Kiyosaki thinks that “The worst is yet to come” in the stock market. Unfortunately, however, Kiyosaki doesn’t tell us how to go about preparing for it.
I’ll have to admit that while some of his reasoning as to why we may have more tough times ahead in the market (and I don’t profess to know one way or the other the way the market’s headed over the short or even intermediate term)Â seems plausible on the surface, I think he misses the mark in a few places.
1. I believe the stock market is being manipulated. I suspect the government, banks, and Wall Street are doing everything they can to keep the market from crashing. Our leaders know that nothing makes the world feel better than a raging bull market.
Government’s hand has been a very heavy one in the economy lately. Everything from bailouts of companies like AIG and GM to the Cash for Clunkers program is evidence of this. Maniplating the stock market? I’m not so sure. Manipulating the economy (which has an impact on the stock market)? Absolutely. I wish the manipulation were related only to the stock market and not to the economy as a whole, because I fear that the long-term ramififications of many of the government’s recent actions may place an unnecessary drag on the economy for a long time to come.
2. In my view, this global crisis has been caused by the Federal Reserve Bank, the U.S. Treasury, Wall Street, and the central banks of the world. They caused the problem, profited excessively in doing so, and now profit by being asked to fix the problem.
While each of the above entities certainly had a hand in creating the mess, laying this problem solely at the feet of financial istitutions is a bit like blaming McDonald’s and Burger King for America’s growing obesity problem. We gladly borrowed all that money and took out loans for all kinds of stuff despite a lot of good financial advice that’s readily available to us that urged us not to take on too much debt (you know, at places like this Fool.com outfit I keep hearing about) just like we gladly and willingly wolf down Big Macs and Whoppers despite all of the information out there telling us we should be eating broccoli instead.
3. Old frogs don’t hop. Another reason I am cautious about the future is that the Western world has a growing number of old frogs. Between 1970 and 2000, the economy responded to bailouts and stimulus packages because the baby boomers of the world were entering their greatest earning years — their purchasing power increased, and demand for homes, cars, refrigerators, computers, and TVs boosted the economy.
That demographic changes will alter the economic landscape isn’t exactly new, but I’m not so sure that I follow this logic. Yes, baby boomers had good earning power and spent money on lots of ’stuff’ — but what are earnings? After all, they’re something someone is willing to pay these boomers for their work — and while there are exceptions, each and every one of these boomers was hired, and paid, because his or her employer at least had the perception that the value of the work they were receiving was at least as great or greater than the value of the money they were paying.
If we are to fear the economic impact of retiring baby boomers, I think its the loss of their productivity, not the loss of their consumption, that we should be most concerned about.
4. The dying frog economy will lead us to the biggest Ponzi schemes of all: Social Security and Medicare. If we think this subprime financial crisis is big, it’s my opinion that this crisis will be dwarfed by the crisis brewing in Social Security and Medicare…Medicare being the biggest crisis of all. As old frogs head for the big lily pad in the sky, they will demand young frogs spend even more in tax dollars just to keep old frogs from croaking.
I agree that this is one of the greatest economic challenges that will be faced within the next generation. No matter what one’s individual views are as to how to best handle this impending problem, I believe the decisions we ultimately make here will have a large impact on our economy and financial well-being for a very long time to come. My only fault with Kiyosaki here is that he never gets to the “Preparing” part that was in the article’s title.
5. The 401(k)Ponzi scheme. A Ponzi scheme, like the scheme Madoff ran, depends upon young money to pay off old money. In other words, a Ponzi scheme needs tadpoles to finance old frogs. The same is true for the 401(k) and other retirement plans to work. If young money does not come into the stock market, the old money cannot retire.
I couldn’t disagree with Kiyosaki more. Sure, lots of money flowing into and out of the market can sometimes cause some pretty big short-term changes in overall stock prices. In the long-term, however, I firmly believe that stocks are ultimately valued by the amount of money they return (or are expected to return) to their shareholders. Sure, short-term irrational ‘blips’, some lasting several years, can, do, and will happen — but 401(k) plans are most definately not a Ponzi scheme.
My differences from Kiyosaki aside, I do still like the title of the article. After all, if nothing else, the recent housing and credit crisis, our struggling economy, and the looming pension, Medicare, Social Security, and other obligations faced by private companies and the government alike tell us that we should, indeed, do our best to be financially prepared for tough times — whenever and however they should strike.
As far as what to do to prepare, well, there are some blue tabs at the top of your screen right now that, if you click on them, have a lot of information and ideas as to how to go about doing exactly that.
Regards,
Russell (a.k.a. TMFEldrehad)
More here:
Is the worst over?
~ Robert Kiyosaki ~
“Is the crisis over?” is a question I am often asked. “Is the economy coming back?”
My reply is, “I don’t think so. I would prepare for the worst.”
Like most people, I wish for a better future for all of us. Life is better when people are working, happy, and spending money.
The stock market has been going up since March 9, 2009. Talk of “green shoots” fill the air. Yet, in spite of the more positive news, I continue to recommend that people prepare for the worst. The following are some of my reasons:
1. I believe the stock market is being manipulated. I suspect the government, banks, and Wall Street are doing everything they can to keep the market from crashing. Our leaders know that nothing makes the world feel better than a raging bull market.
Do I have any proof that the market is being manipulated? No. I just smell a rat, or a pack of rats. I believe greed, self-interest, arrogance, and fear control the financial markets. I suspect those in charge will do anything to keep us all from panicking… and I don’t blame them. A global panic would be ugly and dangerous.
2. In my view, this global crisis has been caused by the Federal Reserve Bank, the U.S. Treasury, Wall Street, and the central banks of the world. They caused the problem, profited excessively in doing so, and now profit by being asked to fix the problem.
Every time I hear a politician mention the word stimulus, my mind flashes back to high school biology class, when I touched battery wires to a dead frog to make it twitch. Today, you and I are the dead frogs. Pretty soon the dead frog will be fried frog.
In the 1980s, our government’s hot money stimulus was measured only in the millions of dollars. By the 1990s, the government had to ramp the stimulus voltage into the billions in order to get the frog to twitch. Today the frog has jumper cables with trillions in high-voltage hot money pouring through the lines.
While most us feel better when we have more high-voltage money in our hands, none of us feel good about higher taxes, increasing national debt, and rising inflation for the long term. Another old saying goes, “Sometimes the cure is worse than the disease.” I say the government stimulus cure is killing us frogs.
3. Old frogs don’t hop. Another reason I am cautious about the future is that the Western world has a growing number of old frogs. Between 1970 and 2000, the economy responded to bailouts and stimulus packages because the baby boomers of the world were entering their greatest earning years — their purchasing power increased, and demand for homes, cars, refrigerators, computers, and TVs boosted the economy.
The stimulus plans seemed to work. But when a person turns 60, their spending habits change dramatically. They stop consuming and start conserving like a bear preparing for winter. The economy of the Western world is heading into winter. Hot wires and hot money will not get old frogs to hop. Old frogs will simply join the bears and stick that money in the bank as they prepare for the long, hard winter known as old age. The businesses that will do well in a winter economy are drug companies, hospitals, wheelchair manufacturers, and mortuaries.
4. The dying frog economy will lead us to the biggest Ponzi schemes of all: Social Security and Medicare. If we think this subprime financial crisis is big, it’s my opinion that this crisis will be dwarfed by the crisis brewing in Social Security and Medicare…Medicare being the biggest crisis of all. As old frogs head for the big lily pad in the sky, they will demand young frogs spend even more in tax dollars just to keep old frogs from croaking.
5. The 401(k)Ponzi scheme. A Ponzi scheme, like the scheme Madoff ran, depends upon young money to pay off old money. In other words, a Ponzi scheme needs tadpoles to finance old frogs. The same is true for the 401(k) and other retirement plans to work. If young money does not come into the stock market, the old money cannot retire. One reason so many people my age are worried, not only about Social Security and Medicare, is because they’re concerned about getting their money out of the stock market before the other old frogs decide to drain the swamp.
The facts are that the 401(k) plan has a trigger that requires old frogs to begin withdrawing their money at a certain age. In other words, as baby boomers grow older, more and more will be required, by law, to begin withdrawing their money from the market. You do not have to be a rocket scientist to know that it is hard for a market to keep going up when more and more people are getting out.
The reason the 401(k) has this law related to mandatory withdrawals is because the Federal government wants to collect the taxes that they deferred when the worker’s money went into the plan. In other words, the taxman wants their pound of flesh. Since they allowed the worker to invest without paying taxes, the government wants their tax dollars when the employee retires. That is why the laws require older workers to sell their shares ¬– and pay their pound of flesh.
Demographics show that we are entering a battle between young and old. I call it the “Age War.” The young want to hang onto their money to grow their families, businesses, and wealth. The old want the tax and investment dollars of the young to sustain their old age.
This war is not coming…it is upon us now. This is one of many reasons why I remain cautious and say, “The worst is yet to come.”
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Preparing for the Worst
BOSTON (MarketWatch) — Virginia S. lives in the Toledo, Ohio area and is nearing retirement as teacher at a religious school.
These days, she is having trouble with her faith.
That’s not a comment about her religion, but rather about maintaining her confidence in the stock market and economy, and hanging on to her belief that years of planning on a modest salary will pay off.
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 ”I keep hearing experts say that consumer confidence is important, but I don’t see anything that could make me confident,” Virginia said via email. “I have time and I wouldn’t mind working longer, but I’m not sure I see it all paying off any more. Why, exactly, would anyone expect someone like me to be confident? What reason do I have to be confident?”
Virginia is far from alone in her flagging sense of trust in the market. On Tuesday, Investor’s Business Daily released its August figures for the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index — an indicator that typically does a good job of foreshadowing what to expect from more renowned consumer confidence benchmarks released later in the month — and it showed a nice pop in good feelings. That said, the 14.4% pick-up in August left the IBD index at 42.8, which is still deep in pessimistic territory.
Looking ahead
Between the housing bubble, credit crisis, inflation worries, concerns over the weak dollar, the potential for the economy to drop into a recession, a stock market that seems more anxious in falling than rebounding, and more, it’s hard to believe an investor could have any faith and confidence left.
Those flames of despair are fanned in chat rooms and message boards by market timers, who suggest that the best way to go is to be out of the market, or following some specialized system, the kind of thing an average investor like Virginia is not likely to do.
In times like these, it might seem as implausible as the existence of Santa Claus, but yes, Virginia, there are reasons to be confident.
Without sounding like a Pollyanna, here are six of them.
1. Market cycles have not been suspended.
While investors have internalized the idea that stocks return 10% annually, that’s an average figure, and no one should believe the stock market is a guaranteed payout machine.
But down cycles have invariably led to up cycles. While many market observers suggest that people should expect the market to deliver an average of 7.5%-8% on average for the next 25 years, it still won’t be a straight-line result.
“If the time you are buying into that average annual return is negative or zero or two, you can expect that somewhere during your investment life there will be a catch-up period,” says Kathy Kristof, author of “Investing 101.”
It would be great if you could avoid the pain and simply invest during the hotter catch-up time, but most people don’t have that kind of vision or timing.
2. The one place your dollar is going further, these days, is the stock market.
Americans are known for being great consumers and lousy savers, but they stink at buying stocks when they go on sale. The same people who would rush out to the mall the next time they hear about a sale on shoes would run away from high-quality companies that are likely to pay for their shoes five or 10 years down the road.
Great companies will survive bad markets; they won’t always be cheap.
3. Numbers don’t lie, but they can confuse the heck out of people.
If you want to view the glass as half-empty, you can produce market statistics that show the decline in 2008, or a time frame which shows a long stretch where the annualized average gain on the market was 0%.
If you want to show the glass half-full, you ignore the current pain in favor of five-year numbers which show gains of nearly 8% annualized over the last five years, despite the recent pain.
Find the numbers that are most important to you, the ones that act as a cornerstone to your philosophy and decisions. There are many ways to read the market, and more than one picture is correct, but what matters most is what you believe in.
Spend less time worrying about whether the glass is half-full or half-empty and more time worrying about what is in the glass. If you like the looks of the market long-term, then it’s like a glass of your favorite cocktail or brew, and it’s easy to see it as half-full; if you’re lacking confidence, it looks like a glass of mud, and you’re hoping it’s half-empty because you don’t want to choke it down.
4. Diversification is better than the alternative, even when it means that parts of your portfolio are hurting.
If you pull all of your money from the market, you avoid principle risk — the chance that you lose money in the market — but embrace purchasing-power risk, the chance that your money won’t keep up with inflation.
Since financial harm happens in many different ways, the best way to keep your cash out of harm’s way is to expose it to many different forms of danger.
5. Working a bit longer — and putting off Social Security — will do things for your retirement nest egg that regular savings didn’t get done.
Research released recently by T. Rowe Price Associates shows that postponing retirement and waiting longer to take Social Security will dramatically increase the staying power of your retirement savings. Christine Fahlund, senior financial planner for the T. Rowe Price Group, says that delaying retirement and Social Security from age 62 to age 70 can double a person’s income in retirement.
Working longer may not be anything to crow about, but it is possible to play catch-up, even in times when the market is not giving you much help.
6. It feels so bad, but it hurts so good.
Typically speaking, the best investment decisions are the ones that feel the worst when you are making them, the ones that try your faith and confidence.
For someone like Virginia, having confidence can be its own reward. In the words of Saint Augustine: “Faith is to believe what you do not see; the reward of this faith is to see what you believe.”
Chuck Jaffe is a senior MarketWatch columnist. His work appears in dozens of U.S. newspapers.
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Investors: Stand by your plan
