Investing may seem daunting for a lot of people. Maybe you have tried it once and failed, or maybe you are simply frightened of losing your money.
To avoid losing any capital, you simply need to be aware of the main pitfalls and always avoid them. The simple, reliable rules for investing are:
1. Have a plan. Always ensure that you or your financial advisor draws up an appropriate investment strategy for you that incorporates your risk profile, timeframes and financial goals. As foolish as it seems, many people plunge headfirst into investing without thoroughly working through these fundamental issues.
2. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Obvious advice, but many people fail to follow it. Many people think that they are on the right financial track by paying off the mortgage on their family home and then buying another property for investment purposes.
Think about it! You have put all of your financial eggs in one asset basket – property. What happens if the property market collapses? Despite common thinking that this is a safe way to invest, the outcome is very risky. You have invested all of your well-earned money into only one area.
3. Build in appropriate timeframes. There is an old saying, “When the tea lady starts to invest in the stock market, it’s time to get out.” What this means is, when the share market is so high that everyone starts to clamber on board, it has probably reached its peak.
There are two ways of successful investment timing. The first is to always pick the low-end of the market to buy and the high-end of the market to sell. This is extremely hard to do. Even the best-informed experts have trouble. The second way is to choose good investments and stay with them over the long-term (say 10 years or more) and ride the waves of the market.
For safe, easy investing, choose the second method. Do not buy into the top-end of the market and sell once it starts to fall. You will definitely lose money this way.
4. Avoid high-risk investments. These include risky business ventures, highly speculative stock, tax avoidance schemes or too-good-to-be-true propositions that promise unusually high returns.
5. Avoid borrowing for your investments. Although some financial advisors advocate ‘gearing your investments’, this can be fraught with danger. Gearing means to borrow. If borrowing for investments takes you over your 40% fixed costs margin, you will be cutting it too fine, particularly if you lose your current income level.
6. Stay with the traditional and known. The best and surest investments are fixed interest, property and shares. Although all asset classes will fluctuate over time.
Work out the optimum mix for your investment profile, have a safe plan to work with and you can’t go wrong.
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6 Rules for Investing
A recent article by Robert Kiyosaki entitled Preparing for the Worst caught my eye. After all, isn’t this sound financial advice for all of us? That’s why we Fools have things like emergency funds.
The article, however, wasn’t about wills, life insurance, or anything like that (which is what I was expecting based on the title), but rather a list of reasons why Kiyosaki thinks that “The worst is yet to come” in the stock market. Unfortunately, however, Kiyosaki doesn’t tell us how to go about preparing for it.
I’ll have to admit that while some of his reasoning as to why we may have more tough times ahead in the market (and I don’t profess to know one way or the other the way the market’s headed over the short or even intermediate term)Â seems plausible on the surface, I think he misses the mark in a few places.
1. I believe the stock market is being manipulated. I suspect the government, banks, and Wall Street are doing everything they can to keep the market from crashing. Our leaders know that nothing makes the world feel better than a raging bull market.
Government’s hand has been a very heavy one in the economy lately. Everything from bailouts of companies like AIG and GM to the Cash for Clunkers program is evidence of this. Maniplating the stock market? I’m not so sure. Manipulating the economy (which has an impact on the stock market)? Absolutely. I wish the manipulation were related only to the stock market and not to the economy as a whole, because I fear that the long-term ramififications of many of the government’s recent actions may place an unnecessary drag on the economy for a long time to come.
2. In my view, this global crisis has been caused by the Federal Reserve Bank, the U.S. Treasury, Wall Street, and the central banks of the world. They caused the problem, profited excessively in doing so, and now profit by being asked to fix the problem.
While each of the above entities certainly had a hand in creating the mess, laying this problem solely at the feet of financial istitutions is a bit like blaming McDonald’s and Burger King for America’s growing obesity problem. We gladly borrowed all that money and took out loans for all kinds of stuff despite a lot of good financial advice that’s readily available to us that urged us not to take on too much debt (you know, at places like this Fool.com outfit I keep hearing about) just like we gladly and willingly wolf down Big Macs and Whoppers despite all of the information out there telling us we should be eating broccoli instead.
3. Old frogs don’t hop. Another reason I am cautious about the future is that the Western world has a growing number of old frogs. Between 1970 and 2000, the economy responded to bailouts and stimulus packages because the baby boomers of the world were entering their greatest earning years — their purchasing power increased, and demand for homes, cars, refrigerators, computers, and TVs boosted the economy.
That demographic changes will alter the economic landscape isn’t exactly new, but I’m not so sure that I follow this logic. Yes, baby boomers had good earning power and spent money on lots of ’stuff’ — but what are earnings? After all, they’re something someone is willing to pay these boomers for their work — and while there are exceptions, each and every one of these boomers was hired, and paid, because his or her employer at least had the perception that the value of the work they were receiving was at least as great or greater than the value of the money they were paying.
If we are to fear the economic impact of retiring baby boomers, I think its the loss of their productivity, not the loss of their consumption, that we should be most concerned about.
4. The dying frog economy will lead us to the biggest Ponzi schemes of all: Social Security and Medicare. If we think this subprime financial crisis is big, it’s my opinion that this crisis will be dwarfed by the crisis brewing in Social Security and Medicare…Medicare being the biggest crisis of all. As old frogs head for the big lily pad in the sky, they will demand young frogs spend even more in tax dollars just to keep old frogs from croaking.
I agree that this is one of the greatest economic challenges that will be faced within the next generation. No matter what one’s individual views are as to how to best handle this impending problem, I believe the decisions we ultimately make here will have a large impact on our economy and financial well-being for a very long time to come. My only fault with Kiyosaki here is that he never gets to the “Preparing” part that was in the article’s title.
5. The 401(k)Ponzi scheme. A Ponzi scheme, like the scheme Madoff ran, depends upon young money to pay off old money. In other words, a Ponzi scheme needs tadpoles to finance old frogs. The same is true for the 401(k) and other retirement plans to work. If young money does not come into the stock market, the old money cannot retire.
I couldn’t disagree with Kiyosaki more. Sure, lots of money flowing into and out of the market can sometimes cause some pretty big short-term changes in overall stock prices. In the long-term, however, I firmly believe that stocks are ultimately valued by the amount of money they return (or are expected to return) to their shareholders. Sure, short-term irrational ‘blips’, some lasting several years, can, do, and will happen — but 401(k) plans are most definately not a Ponzi scheme.
My differences from Kiyosaki aside, I do still like the title of the article. After all, if nothing else, the recent housing and credit crisis, our struggling economy, and the looming pension, Medicare, Social Security, and other obligations faced by private companies and the government alike tell us that we should, indeed, do our best to be financially prepared for tough times — whenever and however they should strike.
As far as what to do to prepare, well, there are some blue tabs at the top of your screen right now that, if you click on them, have a lot of information and ideas as to how to go about doing exactly that.
Regards,
Russell (a.k.a. TMFEldrehad)
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Is the worst over?
~ Robert Kiyosaki ~
“Is the crisis over?” is a question I am often asked. “Is the economy coming back?”
My reply is, “I don’t think so. I would prepare for the worst.”
Like most people, I wish for a better future for all of us. Life is better when people are working, happy, and spending money.
The stock market has been going up since March 9, 2009. Talk of “green shoots” fill the air. Yet, in spite of the more positive news, I continue to recommend that people prepare for the worst. The following are some of my reasons:
1. I believe the stock market is being manipulated. I suspect the government, banks, and Wall Street are doing everything they can to keep the market from crashing. Our leaders know that nothing makes the world feel better than a raging bull market.
Do I have any proof that the market is being manipulated? No. I just smell a rat, or a pack of rats. I believe greed, self-interest, arrogance, and fear control the financial markets. I suspect those in charge will do anything to keep us all from panicking… and I don’t blame them. A global panic would be ugly and dangerous.
2. In my view, this global crisis has been caused by the Federal Reserve Bank, the U.S. Treasury, Wall Street, and the central banks of the world. They caused the problem, profited excessively in doing so, and now profit by being asked to fix the problem.
Every time I hear a politician mention the word stimulus, my mind flashes back to high school biology class, when I touched battery wires to a dead frog to make it twitch. Today, you and I are the dead frogs. Pretty soon the dead frog will be fried frog.
In the 1980s, our government’s hot money stimulus was measured only in the millions of dollars. By the 1990s, the government had to ramp the stimulus voltage into the billions in order to get the frog to twitch. Today the frog has jumper cables with trillions in high-voltage hot money pouring through the lines.
While most us feel better when we have more high-voltage money in our hands, none of us feel good about higher taxes, increasing national debt, and rising inflation for the long term. Another old saying goes, “Sometimes the cure is worse than the disease.” I say the government stimulus cure is killing us frogs.
3. Old frogs don’t hop. Another reason I am cautious about the future is that the Western world has a growing number of old frogs. Between 1970 and 2000, the economy responded to bailouts and stimulus packages because the baby boomers of the world were entering their greatest earning years — their purchasing power increased, and demand for homes, cars, refrigerators, computers, and TVs boosted the economy.
The stimulus plans seemed to work. But when a person turns 60, their spending habits change dramatically. They stop consuming and start conserving like a bear preparing for winter. The economy of the Western world is heading into winter. Hot wires and hot money will not get old frogs to hop. Old frogs will simply join the bears and stick that money in the bank as they prepare for the long, hard winter known as old age. The businesses that will do well in a winter economy are drug companies, hospitals, wheelchair manufacturers, and mortuaries.
4. The dying frog economy will lead us to the biggest Ponzi schemes of all: Social Security and Medicare. If we think this subprime financial crisis is big, it’s my opinion that this crisis will be dwarfed by the crisis brewing in Social Security and Medicare…Medicare being the biggest crisis of all. As old frogs head for the big lily pad in the sky, they will demand young frogs spend even more in tax dollars just to keep old frogs from croaking.
5. The 401(k)Ponzi scheme. A Ponzi scheme, like the scheme Madoff ran, depends upon young money to pay off old money. In other words, a Ponzi scheme needs tadpoles to finance old frogs. The same is true for the 401(k) and other retirement plans to work. If young money does not come into the stock market, the old money cannot retire. One reason so many people my age are worried, not only about Social Security and Medicare, is because they’re concerned about getting their money out of the stock market before the other old frogs decide to drain the swamp.
The facts are that the 401(k) plan has a trigger that requires old frogs to begin withdrawing their money at a certain age. In other words, as baby boomers grow older, more and more will be required, by law, to begin withdrawing their money from the market. You do not have to be a rocket scientist to know that it is hard for a market to keep going up when more and more people are getting out.
The reason the 401(k) has this law related to mandatory withdrawals is because the Federal government wants to collect the taxes that they deferred when the worker’s money went into the plan. In other words, the taxman wants their pound of flesh. Since they allowed the worker to invest without paying taxes, the government wants their tax dollars when the employee retires. That is why the laws require older workers to sell their shares ¬– and pay their pound of flesh.
Demographics show that we are entering a battle between young and old. I call it the “Age War.” The young want to hang onto their money to grow their families, businesses, and wealth. The old want the tax and investment dollars of the young to sustain their old age.
This war is not coming…it is upon us now. This is one of many reasons why I remain cautious and say, “The worst is yet to come.”
See the original post here:
Preparing for the Worst
~ Andrew Beattie
Economic conditions can be as temperamental as the weather. In this article we’ll look at some simple steps that can help keep the financial boat afloat during an economic tempest.
Batten Down the Hatches
Warren Buffet derides management that embarks on cost cutting, as good management shouldn’t need to be prompted to control costs – that should be second nature. People are less strict with their personal finances than Buffet is on management, but a downturn quickly provides the motivation needed for cost consciousness. There is always room for cutting frivolous expenses, or at least substituting them with cheaper alternatives. This applies to everything from the morning coffee to landscaping the backyard.
Set in Stores
Even if you have creditors banging on your door and ringing you at work, your first priority should be building or augmenting your emergency fund. When money is consistently flowing out of your bank account leaving a near-zero balance, there is no cushion for unexpected and unavoidable expenses – like a root canal or a new radiator. This forces people to take on yet more debt to make ends meet, and the outflow of cash worsens until it seems like they are working just to satisfy their creditors. The better alternative is to make minimum payments on your debt while building a cushion of at least one month’s wages, but preferably 3-6 months.
The larger the emergency fund, the more secure you’ll be mentally and financially. With three or more months in reserve, it takes a pretty big emergency to shake things up. Building the fund should take precedence over investment as well as debt payments. Any automatic investment plan should be put temporarily on hold and that money funneled towards the emergency fund to help speed up the building. It may feel like you’re dodging creditors and robbing from your golden years, but with a proper emergency fund, you’ll be in a better situation to consistently make payments on your debts and regularly invest no matter what happens in the future.
Patch the Hull
When the general market is choppy, there is almost daily coverage of where the hot money is going. Investors rush out of cash and into bonds; out of bonds and into stocks; out of stocks and back into cash and bonds, and on and on. Rather than getting caught up in the stutter-step of fast money, most people would benefit far more from paying down existing debt than finding safe havens to park idle funds.
If you are holding debt during a downturn, paying it back is one of the few places where you can put your money that will guarantee a return no matter what the market is doing. The return on paying off a 5% loan is, of course, the 5% you are no longer being charged. With some credit companies charging in the high teens and twenties, you’ll likely outstrip the S&P 500 and your own portfolio simply by getting that future interest off your books.
Check the Charts
When the economy is disrupted, the value of stocks in your portfolio will also be whipsawing. Although you don’t want to make rash decisions during economic downturns, recessions and slumps are very informative on the whole. In good times, mediocre and even weak companies can prosper, so hard times act as a baptism of fire for all stocks. Therefore, there’s a lot to be learned from how a company reacts to a downturn. Companies that continue to profit – or at least lose money at a slower rate – in a downturn can often take advantage of depressed prices to expand their businesses and snap up assets on the cheap.
Cash on hand, much like your personal emergency fund, is one measure of how vulnerable a company is when profits slump. Companies that perpetually overextend themselves in good times are easy to spot, as they languish and burn up their cash reserves in hard times. If you already have a regular schedule for checking into your holdings, don’t change it because of an economic dip. Do, however, note how they are handling things and whether or not cash reserves are being used up. If you still like how a company is acting, it’s a good time to get more on the cheap. If the downturn has uncovered some dogs, then why hold on when you could do better things with the cash that’s tied up?
Conclusion
One of the biggest temptations is to reverse all your preparation when the economy recovers. Economists sometimes call this spending binge “pent up demand.” As things improve, there seems to be less need to have large amounts of cash in reserve, or to keep to a strict budget. There is also a tendency to mindlessly push money back into the market to make up for lost time and value, sometimes leading to an echo bubble. If, however, you can continue to run a tight financial ship, you’ll find that your superior reserves, cost consciousness and contrarian thinking will keep you sailing smoothly in all manner of economic seas.
Here is the original:
Four Ways to Weather an Economic Storm
At a conference on financial literacy on Apr. 20 in Chicago, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said it was time for Americans to learn to manage their money.
Ramit Sethi couldn’t agree more. The 26-year old personal finance guru has made it his mission to help Americans do just that and he tries to make it as simple as possible.
In his new book, I Will Teach You to Be Rich, and on his blog of the same name, Sethi shows twentysomethings how they can automate their financial decision-making and learn how not to overanalyze.
This is especially true when it comes to investing. He says money should be automatically diverted to investment accounts, then automatically invested and rebalanced, according to a set calendar.
Sethi met with BusinessWeek’s Ben Levisohn on Apr. 17 to discuss how fearful investors can get started in this vexing environment.
You’re only 26. How did you start investing?
When I was in high school, I applied for a number of scholarships because my parents told me we had to. The first scholarship, for $2,000, was written to me and I invested it in the stock market. This was back in 2000. I lost a lot of money. I still have some of those stocks. One is worth 90% in total. I probably lost 99% of that money. That was a great eye-opener. It made me realize that just because you see a stock on TV that does not mean you should invest in it. Just because you’re wearing clothes from Gap doesn’t mean it’s a good investment. That’s when my eyes started to open. But if you ask most people, “hey, what investments do you have,” they say, “you mean stocks?” Which causes me to throw my hands up in the air.
So you’re not a big believer in buying individual stocks. How should people invest?
I want to reduce choice and encourage people to invest. For most, a target date fund is perfect. That’s the 85% solution. It’s not perfect, but it’s good enough. There’s no need for people to rebalance by themselves. The fact that we have 60- to 70-year olds losing 50% of their money speaks volumes that just because you should rebalance your investments, it doesn’t mean you will. Just like you should practice safe sex does not mean you will.
But what if investors want a little more control?
If you really want to tweak it, if you’re a type-A nerd and you’re reading about all different asset allocations, then let me show you how to do this. Here’s a recommendation: the Swensen model, by Yale’s Chief Investment Officer David Swenson. Take this and tweak it as needed. (The Swensen Model allocates 30% to domestic equities, 15% to developed world international equities, 5% to emerging-market equities, 20% to real estate funds, 15% to government bonds, and 15% to TIPs.)
But we need to build systems around automating rebalancing so people are not depending on more will power. Investing and personal finance — we’ve shown that it’s not about more will power. It’s about creating systems that do this by default for us.
So you wouldn’t recommend trying to time the market?
There are people now who pulled their money out. And when the market comes up, they will be some of the last that get in. It drives me crazy. They think this is binary. You either put money in the market or pull it out. That’s not how investing works. There are so many gradations and nuances. You can change asset allocation, you can diversify differently, you can change your time horizon. There are a million things you can do. If you try to time the market, then you are a fool. I’m trying to focus on the long term. I really believe in investing for the long term.
Have you changed your outlook because of the bear market?
I was given the opportunity to completely revamp the book in light of the crisis, but the material stands on its merits. What I tell people is that what’s in the newspaper today and what President Obama decided to do today has very little to do with your personal finances. Personal finances are personal. You can turn off your TV, close down all the Web sites for the next six weeks, and your finances, if you optimize them, would get much better regardless of what happens.
Young investors have watched their parents lose a good chunk of their retirement savings. What do you say to them to coax them into the market when they may feel like socking away their cash in a mattress?
Although it seems catastrophic, we’re in our twenties and thirties and essentially the market is on sale. If I told you one year ago that the market would be 50% off for the same equities you’re buying now, what would you have said? The answer, of course, is I would have been ecstatic. Now there’s a lot of psychology and uncertainty involved and that’s changing things.
How have your investments done in this environment?
I’m roughly indexed, so I was basically in line with the market.
Did you expect these kinds of losses?
I was surprised. The models don’t predict this loss typically. We know there are a lot of problems with models. But as a young person, I’m comfortable knowing I can afford that kind of risk. I was consciously invested and am still consciously invested in a risk seeking way. My readers in their twenties and thirties who are invested are interested in the same. They understand this is a long-term play. They understand there are trade-offs. I’m comfortable knowing that not only do I have a long-term perspective, I’m comfortable managing money, earning more, so it can flow back into my infrastructure.
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Smart Money Moves for Young Investors
