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A recent article by Robert Kiyosaki entitled Preparing for the Worst caught my eye.  After all, isn’t this sound financial advice for all of us?  That’s why we Fools have things like emergency funds.

The article, however, wasn’t about wills, life insurance, or anything like that (which is what I was expecting based on the title), but rather a list of reasons why Kiyosaki thinks that “The worst is yet to come” in the stock market.  Unfortunately, however, Kiyosaki doesn’t tell us how to go about preparing for it.

I’ll have to admit that while some of his reasoning as to why we may have more tough times ahead in the market (and I don’t profess to know one way or the other the way the market’s headed over the short or even intermediate term) seems plausible on the surface, I think he misses the mark in a few places.

1. I believe the stock market is being manipulated. I suspect the government, banks, and Wall Street are doing everything they can to keep the market from crashing. Our leaders know that nothing makes the world feel better than a raging bull market.

Government’s hand has been a very heavy one in the economy lately.  Everything from bailouts of companies like AIG and GM to the Cash for Clunkers program is evidence of this.  Maniplating the stock market?  I’m not so sure.  Manipulating the economy (which has an impact on the stock market)?  Absolutely.  I wish the manipulation were related only to the stock market and not to the economy as a whole, because I fear that the long-term ramififications of many of the government’s recent actions may place an unnecessary drag on the economy for a long time to come.

2. In my view, this global crisis has been caused by the Federal Reserve Bank, the U.S. Treasury, Wall Street, and the central banks of the world. They caused the problem, profited excessively in doing so, and now profit by being asked to fix the problem.

While each of the above entities certainly had a hand in creating the mess, laying this problem solely at the feet of financial istitutions is a bit like blaming McDonald’s and Burger King for America’s growing obesity problem.  We gladly borrowed all that money and took out loans for all kinds of stuff despite a lot of good financial advice that’s readily available to us that urged us not to take on too much debt (you know, at places like this Fool.com outfit I keep hearing about) just like we gladly and willingly wolf down Big Macs and Whoppers despite all of the information out there telling us we should be eating broccoli instead.

3. Old frogs don’t hop. Another reason I am cautious about the future is that the Western world has a growing number of old frogs. Between 1970 and 2000, the economy responded to bailouts and stimulus packages because the baby boomers of the world were entering their greatest earning years — their purchasing power increased, and demand for homes, cars, refrigerators, computers, and TVs boosted the economy.

That demographic changes will alter the economic landscape isn’t exactly new, but I’m not so sure that I follow this logic.  Yes, baby boomers had good earning power and spent money on lots of ’stuff’ — but what are earnings?  After all, they’re something someone is willing to pay these boomers for their work — and while there are exceptions, each and every one of these boomers was hired, and paid, because his or her employer at least had the perception that the value of the work they were receiving was at least as great or greater than the value of the money they were paying.

If we are to fear the economic impact of retiring baby boomers, I think its the loss of their productivity, not the loss of their consumption, that we should be most concerned about.

4. The dying frog economy will lead us to the biggest Ponzi schemes of all: Social Security and Medicare. If we think this subprime financial crisis is big, it’s my opinion that this crisis will be dwarfed by the crisis brewing in Social Security and Medicare…Medicare being the biggest crisis of all. As old frogs head for the big lily pad in the sky, they will demand young frogs spend even more in tax dollars just to keep old frogs from croaking.

I agree that this is one of the greatest economic challenges that will be faced within the next generation.  No matter what one’s individual views are as to how to best handle this impending problem, I believe the decisions we ultimately make here will have a large impact on our economy and financial well-being for a very long time to come.  My only fault with Kiyosaki here is that he never gets to the “Preparing” part that was in the article’s title.

5. The 401(k)Ponzi scheme. A Ponzi scheme, like the scheme Madoff ran, depends upon young money to pay off old money. In other words, a Ponzi scheme needs tadpoles to finance old frogs. The same is true for the 401(k) and other retirement plans to work. If young money does not come into the stock market, the old money cannot retire.

I couldn’t disagree with Kiyosaki more.  Sure, lots of money flowing into and out of the market can sometimes cause some pretty big short-term changes in overall stock prices.  In the long-term, however, I firmly believe that stocks are ultimately valued by the amount of money they return (or are expected to return) to their shareholders.  Sure, short-term irrational ‘blips’, some lasting several years, can, do, and will happen — but 401(k) plans are most definately not a Ponzi scheme.

My differences from Kiyosaki aside, I do still like the title of the article.  After all, if nothing else, the recent housing and credit crisis, our struggling economy, and the looming pension, Medicare, Social Security, and other obligations faced by private companies and the government alike tell us that we should, indeed, do our best to be financially prepared for tough times — whenever and however they should strike.

As far as what to do to prepare, well, there are some blue tabs at the top of your screen right now that, if you click on them, have a lot of information and ideas as to how to go about doing exactly that.

Regards,

Russell (a.k.a. TMFEldrehad)

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Is the worst over?

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Preparing for the Worst

You know the part of the classic wedding ceremony in which couples vow to stick together “for richer, for poorer”? Well, a lot of spouses lately are really putting the latter part of that promise to the test.

Blame the economy for shaking up once-solid unions. Marital roles are shifting as onetime breadwinners adjust to long bouts of unemployment. Husbands and wives are blaming each other for bad investments and onerous debt. Spouses who once smoothed over spats with a little shopping therapy can no longer afford to fill that prescription. “It’s the biggest stress on married couples in the past 60 years,” says Margaret Shapiro, a clinical social worker in Philadelphia.

How are you and your spouse coping with the challenges you’re facing? And what can you do to ensure you pull together to solve those problems instead of being torn apart by them? The following quiz provides insights into the specific ways the economy may be affecting your marriage, plus the steps you can take to strengthen your relationship — and your finances.

Question 1: Your company reduced salaries 10% this year, and you’re looking hard for ways to cut your family’s expenses. But your spouse insists that you’re exaggerating the financial difficulties and resists attempts to ratchet back your lifestyle. Every conversation about money is turning into a battle. What is most likely to result in a lasting solution to the tension?

A. Let your spouse pick one splurge each month and enjoy it.

B. Together, take a look at the numbers in your investment and checking accounts.

C. Split up your finances so you don’t have to discuss every purchase.

Answer : B. While some couples might benefit from dividing their money or looking the other way when one makes an occasional indulgent purchase, one of the biggest breeding grounds for arguments is simply that most spouses appear to be operating under different sets of “facts” about the resources they have to work with.

According to a study by Jay Zagorsky at Ohio State University’s Center for Human Resource Research, the typical husband reports that the couple earn 5% more and have a net worth 10% higher than his wife thinks they do. And men believe household debt is lower than their wives do.

Moreover, the gap between what husbands and wives say their household earns, saves, and owes gets bigger the longer they are married. (The study didn’t reveal which spouse is usually closer to the mark.)

Rather than fight about whether you can afford to take a ski vacation this winter or whether it’s necessary to ditch your premium cable-TV channels, get the facts you need to make an informed decision. Block out time to sit down together and sort out the basics.

At a minimum you both need to know — and agree on the numbers for — your income (look at last year’s tax return and this year’s most recent pay stubs), your assets (check your account balances online and get a rough estimate of your home’s market value at zillow.com), and your liabilities (add up your most recent loan and credit card statements to see how much you owe overall and do a back-of-the-envelope total of your monthly expenses). That way you’ll know for sure whether you need to cut back and what extras you can swing.

If the exercise reveals you can’t afford the slopes in Vail, find a compromise. Ask your spouse why the trip matters so much: family tradition of a big trip? Relaxation? Love of snow? Then see if you can find a cheaper way to fulfill that goal.

Question 2: It’s been a tough year. The value of your home and your portfolio are way down (even after the recent surge in stock prices), and the payments on the big home-equity loan you took to buy that new motorboat are starting to feel out of reach. Which of the financial issues you face is putting the greatest strain on your marriage?

A. Your plummeting portfolio.

B. Your eroding home equity.

C. Those oversize loan payments.

D. Trick question. They’re all stressful — duh! There’s no way to rank this kind of financial pain.

Answer: C. Sure, a sharp decline in the value of your most important assets can easily put a damper on your relationship — it’s depressing, after all, to watch your savings shrink, and depression doesn’t exactly put you in the mood for love.

But studies by Utah State University professor Jeff Dew show that so-called bad debt, such as balances on credit cards or installment loans, has a much more direct effect on marital happiness than issues with assets, and the impact is largely negative: The more bad debt a couple have, the more likely they are to argue and the less likely they are to be satisfied with their marriage.

By contrast, “good debt” — such as student loans or mortgage payments — doesn’t seem to affect how they feel about each other. And while having more savings and investments can certainly help alleviate feelings of economic pressure, it doesn’t stop the fighting.

So if you’re looking to improve the state of your union, the course is clear: Pare down on the amount you owe.

Feel free to reward yourself along the way — say, a small dinner out to compensate yourself for all the ones you’ve skipped. Or be silly — put stars on the refrigerator, just like you got for your third-grade homework.

“It marks and commemorates that you did it together,” says Lili Vasileff, president of the Association of Divorce Financial Planners. That way you can enjoy a pat on the back while you whittle down your debt — for a double dose of marital contentment.

Question 3. Your spouse was laid off a few months ago. You’ve cut out the housekeeper and family vacations, but your emergency fund is still dwindling, and your partner has no job prospects in sight. In the scenarios below, who suffers the least?

A. Your spouse, the laid-off husband

B. Your spouse, the laid-off wife

C. You, the husband of the laid-off wife

D. You, the wife of the laid-off husband

Answer : C. Losing your job is tough for both men and women, especially if the man strongly identifies with the traditional role of provider. But the effect of your spouse losing his or her job is different for the sexes.

Various studies indicate that women are likely to feel depressed when their husbands are laid off — an increasingly common occurrence nowadays, with male unemployment rising faster than women’s. Yet husbands don’t seem to take it so hard when their wives lose their jobs.

Any negative feelings can easily aggravate the strain couples are already experiencing owing to loss of income, says Scott Stanley, co-author of the book “Fighting for Your Marriage.” The laid-off partner may feel too low to put all his or her energy into looking for work, especially given how discouraging the job market is — or even to prepare a meal or pick up the dry cleaning (chores that also serve as a reminder of the stay-at-home spouse role).

The employed partner, meanwhile, may become frustrated by the spouse’s lack of get-up-and-go on the job and the home fronts. Both partners may find themselves more critical of their spouse than before, which in turn makes them unhappier with their relationship.

If this describes your household, it’s time to alter the pattern. The best way to avoid arguments about changing family responsibilities is to set a few ground rules about how much housework the unemployed spouse should be doing and how much time he or she should spend looking for a job. Then focus on upholding your end of the bargain, not micromanaging your partner’s.

“It doesn’t matter how you arrange things, but that you both agree to it,” says therapist Shapiro.

Question 4. You and your spouse were counting on retiring in 2011. But the 30% decline in your portfolio last year is forcing you to rethink. Now you’re constantly bickering about when you’ll be able to stop working and what kind of lifestyle you’ll have once you do. What’s the most important step you can take now to improve the odds you’ll eventually have a happy retirement?

A. Aggressively pump up the amount you’re saving in your 401(k) and IRA.

B. Start practicing the kind of lifestyle you’d like to have once you retire.

C. Bite the bullet and plan on working for five more years, possibly longer.

Answer: B. Money does have an effect on how happy you will be as a couple in your later years, according to a 2005 study in the International Journal of Aging and Human Development. But the size of your nest egg is not nearly as critical as the quality of the time you spend together.

Studying more than 100 upper-middle-class couples (average age: 69; average length of marriage: 42 years), the researchers found that disagreements about leisure activities were the biggest downer, cited by nearly 40% of couples in unhappy marriages.

Intimacy problems — both emotional and physical — were a distant second, and finances came in fifth, behind health and household issues like home repairs.

So by all means, be aggressive about saving and work a little longer if you can. But you and your spouse also need to lay the groundwork for hanging out together for longer periods and having fun together.

The next time you both have a few days off, make it a staycation. Visit a museum. Find a sport or activity that the two of you can learn together. Playing at retirement should help reduce the friction now and contribute to greater happiness later on.

Question 5. You can’t help it: You think the financial pickle your family is in now is your husband’s fault. After all, he insisted that you buy a too-expensive house, which drove up your expenses by a third. He, on the other hand, says it’s your fault for poorly managing your IRA s, which lost almost half their value last year. Which of you is to blame?

A. You. You should never have loaded your IRAs with risky stocks.

B. Your husband. Digging out from a financial hole is tougher than waiting for the market to bounce back.

C. Both of you are equally to blame.

D. Neither of you should feel that it’s your fault.

Answer : C or D. Ultimately it doesn’t matter who was responsible for your financial predicament; what’s important is that you don’t get hung up on finger-pointing.

Stressful situations often lead couples to lay blame, says Barbara Mitchell, a clinical social worker in New York City who specializes in money issues. “There’s a tendency to scapegoat one another, which starts a real downward spiral,” she says. Researchers have consistently found that the more “negative interactions” you and your partner have — and laying blame for the family’s financial woes certainly qualifies — the worse your relationship will be and the more likely you’ll start thinking about divorce.

Instead of criticizing each other, fault the true culprit, the economy, and form a united front against it.

Schedule regular weekly meetings in which you and your spouse discuss financial problems and possible solutions calmly. That sort of quarantine will prevent your financial gripes from infecting the rest of your day-to-day interactions. Defuse the emotion by focusing on the task. Instead of arguing about who wanted the McMansion more, look into refinancing to lower your costs or trading down to a smaller house.

Question 6. All you and your spouse seem to do these days is fight about money. Even though you hate to admit it, your marriage has reached the breaking point. Given how tough the economic crisis has been on relationships, you have plenty of company, right?

A. No, the evidence suggests that fewer people are getting divorced.

B. Yes, the divorce rate typically spikes during a recession, and this one is proving no different.

C. No, there’s been no change in the divorce rate, which historically has not been affected by the economy.

Answer: A. First things first: It’s a myth that money problems are the leading cause of divorce — infidelity is far and away the biggest predictor. In fact, although official stats aren’t in yet, there’s mounting evidence that the recession is keeping couples together, not breaking them apart.

In a survey by the American Academy of Matrimonial Lawyers, 37% of the divorce attorneys polled reported that they see a drop in cases during recessions, nearly twice as many who said their business grows.

However, the dropoff in divorce doesn’t indicate that marriages are any happier these days, but rather that many would-be exes believe they can’t afford to split up (think about the hit you’d take selling your house in this market or how costly it would be to maintain separate households). The number of these too-poor-to-divorce cases has increased in the past year, say 63% of the financial pros recently surveyed by the Institute for Divorce Financial Analysts.

If, after trying to work through your problems with your spouse, you’re both truly convinced you should call it quits, at least try to split up economically. Hiring lawyers to hash out a settlement can be expensive: Boston attorney David Hoffman, studying nearly 200 divorce cases at his firm over a four-year period, found that the median cost per couple was about $54,000.

Alternatively, look into mediation ($16,000), in which a neutral expert helps a couple work out their own agreement. Or consider what’s known as a collaborative divorce ($39,000), in which each spouse has a lawyer but both sides pledge to negotiate respectfully and share information about assets.

Find pros who can help at collaborativepractice.com or mediate.com. No matter how bitter you are, work hard to avoid a contentious split (typical cost of a courtroom divorce battle in Hoffman’s study: $155,000). After all, while true love is priceless, divorce can get really expensive.

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Is the economy ruining your marriage?