Robert Kiyosaki Blog

Financial Education Portal inspired by Robert Kiyosaki

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NIA: Proof Gold Stocks Most Undervalued in History

On Sunday when NIA suggested January 2015 GDX $25 call options, we showed you a chart of the HUI/Gold ratio. The HUI index for the most part tracks the same exact stocks owned by GDX. The HUI/Gold ratio shows how undervalued gold stocks are vs. the price of gold. The HUI/Gold ratio has a 17 year average of 0.37 and currently is down to 0.164, the lowest it has been since 2001, at the very beginning of gold’s secular bull market.   However, this doesn’t tell the complete story. Gold miners have seen their expenses go through the roof – a fact that proves there is massive price inflation, despite what the gold bears say. A big portion of a gold miner’s expenses are related to energy. Therefore, the Gold/Oil ratio is another important chart to look at. In June/July of 2008, when oil soared to well over $130 per barrel, the Gold/Oil ratio declined to below 7. From year 1970 through today, the Gold/Oil ratio has averaged 15.19. Currently, we have a Gold/Oil ratio of 12.22.   A low Gold/Oil ratio is bad for gold miners, because their expenses are high relative to the gold they produce. The current Gold/Oil ratio, although below the long-term average, is not at an extreme level like in June/July of 2008. Oil prices, although expensive, are not high enough to severely hurt gold miners in a way that justifies a HUI/Gold ratio of less than half its long-term average. If we currently had a Gold/Oil ratio of 7, a HUI/Gold ratio of 0.164 would be justified, but right now there is no justification to the current artificially low HUI/Gold ratio.   Below, we are once again going to provide you with the HUI/Gold ratio chart we showed you on Sunday. After that we will show you a chart of the Gold/Oil ratio. Following those two charts is a chart of a new ratio that NIA has invented – the Gold/Oil to HUI/Gold ratio. NIA’s Gold/Oil to HUI/Gold ratio has a 14-year average of 37.68. A high Gold/Oil to HUI/Gold ratio of well above its long-term average indicates that gold stocks are undervalued relative to their potential profitability.   Historically, any extreme highs in the Gold/Oil to HUI/Gold ratio were an excellent time to buy gold stocks. In December of 2000, when it spiked up to above 60, the HUI was priced at 177.61. When the Gold/Oil to HUI/Gold ratio returned to a more normal level of 39.63 in June of 2001, the HUI was up to 276.24 for a gain of 56% in six months. In December of 2001, when it spiked up to...

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An Easy Way to Solve the Biggest Problem Facing Investors Today

“All income-generating assets are below their average yield… and most are near all-time lows.” That’s what master researcher James O’Shaughnessy told the Big Picture Conference earlier this month. He went on to say that he believes the biggest problem facing investors today is income. You see, James’ research shows that now is the toughest time in 140 years for investors trying to generate income. But he also revealed a simple solution you can easily put to work today… Jeff showed people what to do with their money during crisis conditions and how to profit in 2014. He also put together a special offer where you can get one of his research services for free.   James has made a career of looking back at history to find insights into what’s happening today. In his fantastic book, What Works on Wall Street, he ran the numbers on nearly every investment idea you could dream up. (I keep a copy on my desk at all times.) And he’s built a successful money-management business that invests around $ 5 billion using strategies based on his research. Today, James’ research shows that most income investments, especially bonds, aren’t paying the kinds of yields investors need to survive. Bonds have been in a multi-decade bull market. As prices go up, yields come down. Thirty-year U.S. Treasurys only pay 3.65% as I write. And James believes they’ll be a losing proposition over time… “Long-term bonds have done very well for a very long time,” he says. “No one remembers that long bonds lost 68% after inflation from 1941-1981… but it can happen again.” You read that right… After inflation, “safe” long-term bonds lost 68% of their value from 1941-1981. Today, with high prices and low yields, we could be in store for another multi-decade bear market. James believes the best thing you can do to generate income is to avoid bonds and buy international stocks that pay dividends. Even during the greatest period in history for long-term bonds (1981-2011)… you’d have beaten them by simply owning global dividend-payers. Right now, he believes global dividend-payers are the easiest and safest way to generate income. And I’ve found an easy way to make the investment. This fund holds 100 of the best global dividend-payers. And it only holds companies that have consistently paid big dividends. Based on history, this is a winning strategy. The index IDV tracks has crushed the stock and bond markets since its creation in 1998. Over the last 15 years, this basket of global dividend-payers more than doubled the return on 30-year Treasurys. And it more than tripled the return of U.S. stocks. Importantly, this fund...

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