Robert Kiyosaki Blog

Financial Education Portal inspired by Robert Kiyosaki


The Single Biggest Reason Most Investors LOSE Money

It’s almost never openly admitted in public, but the reality is that few if any investors actually beat the market in the long-term. The reason for this is that most of the investment strategies employed by investors (professional or amateur) simply do not make money. I know this runs counter to the claims of the entire financial services industry. But it is factually correct. In 2012, the S&P 500 roared up 16% including dividends. During that period, less than 40% of fund managers beat the market. Most investors could have simply invested in an index fund, paid less in fees, and done better. If you spread out performance over the last two years (2011 and 2012) the results are even worsen with only 10% of funds beating the market. If we stretch back even further, the results are even more dismal. For the ten years ended 1Q 2013, a mere 0.4% of mutual funds have beaten the market. 0.4%, as in less than half of one percent of funds. These are investment “professionals,” folks whose jobs depend on producing gains, who cannot beat the market for any significant period. The reason this fact is not better known is because the mutual fund industry usually closes its losing funds or merges them with other, better performing funds. As a result, the mutual fund industry in general experiences a tremendous survivor bias. But the cold hard fact what I told you earlier: less than half of one percent of fund managers outperform the market over a ten-year period. So how does one beat the market? Cigar Butts and Moats. “Cigar butts” was a term used by the father of value investing, Benjamin Graham, to describe investing in companies that trade at significant discounts to their underlying values. Graham likened these companies to old, used cigar butts that had been discarded, but which had just one more puff left in them. Like discarded cigar butts, these investments were essentially “free”: investors had discarded them based on the perception that they had no value. However, many of these cigar butts do in fact have on last puff in them. And for a shrewd investor like Benjamin Graham, that last puff was the profit potential obtained by acquiring these companies at prices below their intrinsic value (below the value of the companies assets plus cash, minus its liabilities). Graham used a lot of diversification, investing in hundreds of “cigar butts” to produce average annual gains of 20%, far outpacing the S&P 500’s 12.2% per year over the same time period. So when I say that you can amass a fortune by investing in Cigar...

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Fiat Money Quantity hits new record

   QE3 is running at $ 85bn, and directly increases FMQ by double that amount, or $ 170bn, indicating that other factors contributed $ 57bn to the FMQ total. This suggests that the current rate of QE was insufficient to provide the liquidity required in money markets consistent with current interest rates, at least for the month of September. However, bond yields are still high, despite the deferral of tapering, as shown in the second chart, which is of the US Treasury 10-year note yield. Since 30th October the Treasury 10-year note yield has increased from 2.5% to 2.75%. During that time it has been more widely acknowledged that tapering has been deferred for the foreseeable future. This being the case, the rise in yield indicates that underlying tightness in bond markets has returned after a brief pause, despite the Fed’s bond purchases and the liquidity this provides. Therefore, QE3 may need to be supplemented by other measures if interest rates and bond yields are to be maintained at current levels. Note: the methodology and construction of FMQ was published by GoldMoney. Fiat Money Quantity hits new...

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India’s Demand to Buy Silver Doubles on Gold Ban, Price Drop

Anti-gold rules force consumers to buy silver instead, imports double from 2012… DEMAND to buy silver amongst Indian households has pushed the country’s imports of the precious metal to twice last year’s level and may set a record in 2013, according to industry experts. Between January and September, silver imports to India totaled more than 4,000 tonnes, already beating full-year 2012 says the Thomson Reuters GFMS consultancy. The world’s largest end-consumer of silver bullion as well as gold, India’s current record demand to buy silver came at just over 5,000 tonnes in 2008. That figure equals some 16% of total global demand, put around 30,000 tonnes per year. India’s demand to buy gold, also the world leader, has been nearer 25%. But after July and August this year saw silver imports of 1,000 tonnes as gold imports fell to zero, “India could import 6,000 tonnes of silver this year,” reckons a special report from Japanese trading house Mitsui, “almost 1,000 tonnes more than the record imports seen in 2008.” “There has been a massive improvement in silver imports,” agrees Bombay Bullion Association director Harmesh Arora, speaking to Reuters today, “and we will continue to see more. “Investors are taking advantage of lower prices,” says Arora, “and the lack of restrictions on silver imports as of now.” Noting the surge in demand to buy silver as prices fell steeply in 2011 from near all-time highs, “The response of Indian consumers to price weakness in silver can be spectacular,” says Mitsui strategist David Jollie. Even though silver cannot directly replace gold in many areas of India’s cultural and religious culture, he adds, “The massive price decline for silver in April 2013 encouraged further buying.” Looking at the Indian government’s aggressive anti-gold measures, “I don’t think we will see any policy changes in silver,” says Rajesh Khosla, managing director with refiner MMTC PAMP – part-owned by the government. “There is less gold available, so rural people will gradually move to silver. It will be a more of a default option than a conscious choice,” he believes. India’s Demand to Buy Silver Doubles on Gold Ban, Price...

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The adverse effects of monetary stimulation

By Alasdair Macleod There are two indisputable economic facts to bear in mind. The first is that GDP is simply a money-total of economic transactions, and a central bank fosters an increase in GDP by making available more money and therefore bank credit to inflate this number. This is not the same as genuine economic progress, which is what consumers desire and entrepreneurs provide in an unfettered market with reliable money. The second fact is that newly issued money is not absorbed into an economy evenly: it has to be handed to someone first, like a bank or government department, who in turn passes it on to someone else through their dealings and so on, step by step until it is finally dispersed. As new money enters the economy, it naturally drives up the prices of goods bought with it. This means that someone seeking to buy a similar product without the benefit of new money finds it is more expensive, or put more correctly the purchasing power of his wages and savings has fallen relative to that product. Therefore, the new money benefits those that first obtain it at the expense of everyone else. Obviously, if large amounts of new money are being mobilised by a central bank, as is the case today, the transfer of wealth from those who receive the money later to those who get it early will be correspondingly greater. Now let’s look at today’s monetary environment in the United States. The wealth-transfer effect is not being adequately recorded, because official inflation statistics do not capture the real increase in consumer prices. The difference between official figures and a truer estimate of US inflation is illustrated by John Williams of, who estimates it to be 7% higher than the official rate at roughly 9%, using the government’s computation methodology prior to 1980. Simplistically and assuming no wage inflation, this approximates to the current rate of wealth transfer from the majority of people to those that first receive the new money from the central bank. The Fed is busy financing most of the Government’s borrowing. The newly-issued money in Government’s hands is distributed widely, and maintains prices of most basic goods and services at a higher level than they would otherwise be. However, in providing this funding, the Fed creates excess reserves on its own balance sheet, and it is this money we are considering.The reserves on the Fed’s balance sheet are actually deposits, the assets of commercial banks and other domestic and foreign depository institutions that use the Fed as a bank, in the same way the rest of us have bank deposits...

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Simon Black – This one chart shows you who’s really in control

November 7, 2013 Bangkok, Thailand Check out this chart below. It’s a graph of total US tax revenue as a percentage of the money supply, since 1900. For example, in 1928, at the peak of the Roaring 20s, US money supply (M2) was $ 46.4 billion. That same year, the US government took in $ 3.9 billion in tax revenue. So in 1928, tax revenue was 8.4% of the money supply. In contrast, at the height of World War II in 1944, US tax revenue had increased to $ 42.4 billion. But money supply had also grown substantially, to $ 106.8 billion. So in 1944, tax revenue was 39.74% of money supply. You can see from this chart that over the last 113 years, tax revenue as a percentage of the nation’s money supply has swung wildly, from as little as 3.65% to over 40%. But something interesting happened in the 1970s. 1971 was a bifurcation point, and this model went from chaotic to stable. Since 1971, in fact, US tax revenue as a percentage of money supply has been almost a constant, steady 20%. You can see this graphically below as we zoom in on the period from 1971 through 2013– the trend line is very flat. What does this mean? Remember– 1971 was the year that Richard Nixon severed the dollar’s convertibility to gold once and for all. And in doing so, he handed unchecked, unrestrained, total control of the money supply to the Federal Reserve. That’s what makes this data so interesting. Prior to 1971, there was ZERO correlation between US tax revenue and money supply. Yet almost immediately after they handed the last bit of monetary control to the Federal Reserve, suddenly a very tight correlation emerged. Furthermore, since 1971, marginal tax rates and tax brackets have been all over the board. In the 70s, for example, the highest marginal tax was a whopping 70%. In the 80s it dropped to 28%. And yet, the entire time, total US tax revenue has remained very tightly correlated to the money supply. The conclusion is simple: People think they’re living in some kind of democratic republic. But the politicians they elect have zero control. It doesn’t matter who you elect, what the politicians do, or how high/low they set tax rates. They could tax the rich. They could destroy the middle class. It doesn’t matter. The fiscal revenues in the Land of the Free rest exclusively in the hands of a tiny banking elite. Everything else is just an illusion to conceal the truth… and make people think that they’re in control. This one chart shows you...

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How to Legally “Opt Out” of Federal Income Taxes

If you’re a retiree… or if you’re simply looking to earn safe interest on your money… you have two enemies: 1. Federal income tax rates that can take a 20%-30% bite out of your earnings. In some cases, that number is as high as 40%. 2. Interest rates that are near record lows. Right now, you’re lucky if you can make even 1% on your bank savings… And that’s before taxes. Fortunately, you can fix this situation quickly. You just need to know how to legally “opt out” of federal income taxes on your savings… and where to find much higher (but still safe) rates of income… Let me show you what I mean… Right now, the highest-yielding one-year Certificate of Deposits (CDs) pay about 1%. Most banks offer a little less… But for this example, we’ll use the banks offering the highest yields. The federal government will tax the income you collect from CDs just like ordinary income. For most folks, this means they must pay Uncle Sam 25%-28% of any interest earned. For high earners, the tax rate is 39.6%. Keep these figures in mind… We’ll come back to them in a moment. But first, you need to know you have the option of placing your money into another safe investment. This investment pays 6.5%… and the interest is free from federal taxes. If you live in a state with zero income tax (like Florida or Texas), you pay no tax at all. So… a saver has the option of parking his money in the bank… We’ll call that “option A” – or in this investment… “option B.” Here’s how the numbers stack up after you factor in taxes: Option A Option B Initial capital $ 10,000 $ 10,000 Annual yield 1% 6.5% Interest income after one year $ 100 $ 650 After federal income tax (28%) $ 72 $ 650 As you can see, it’s no contest. By owning this safe, alternative investment, you can earn nine times more interest on your savings. For a $ 10,000 investment, that’s an extra $ 573 after just one year. If you’re in a higher income bracket and put in a larger chunk of savings, the numbers get ridiculous. For example, on a $ 100,000 chunk of savings, you’ll earn nearly $ 6,000 more a year with this tax-free strategy versus a high-yield CD. And you can start earning this income RIGHT NOW. It will take you just five minutes. All you need is a regular brokerage account. And all you need to do is buy one of my recommended “muni bond” funds. As regular readers know, municipal bonds are...

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The United States: A Third World Economy in 20 Years

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), September brought 148,000 new jobs, enough to keep up with population growth but not reduce the unemployment rate. Moreover, John Williams ( says that one-third of these jobs, or 50,000 per month on average, are phantom jobs produced by the birth-death model that during difficult economic times overestimates the number of new jobs from business startups and underestimates job losses from business failures. The BLS reports that 22,000 of September’s jobs were new hires by state governments, which seems odd in view of the ongoing state budgetary difficulties. In the private sector, wholesale and retail trade produced 36,900 new jobs, which seems odd in light of the absence of growth in real median family income and real retail sales. Transportation and warehousing produced 23,400 new jobs, concentrated in transit and ground passenger transportation. This also seems odd unless the price of gasoline and pinched budgets are forcing people onto public transportation. Professional and business services accounted for 32,000 jobs of which 63% are temporary help jobs. So here you have the job picture that the presstitutes, hyping “the jobs gain,” don’t tell you. The scary part of the September job report is that the usual standby, the category of waitresses and bartenders, which has accounted for a large part of every reported jobs gain since I began reporting the monthly statistics, shows job loss. Seven thousand one hundred waitresses and bartenders lost their jobs in September. If this figure is not a fluke, it is bad news. It signals that fewer Americans can afford to eat and drink out. The unemployment rate that is reported is the rate that does not count as unemployed discouraged workers who are unable to find jobs and cease to look. This favored rate, the darling of the regime in power, the presstitutes, and Wall Street, also is not adjusted for the category of “involuntary part-time workers,” those whose hours have been cut back or because they are unable to find a full-time job. Obamacare, as is widely reported, is causing employers to shift their work forces from full time to part time in order to avoid costs associated with Obamacare. The BLS places the number of involuntary part-time workers at 7,900,000. The announced 7.2% unemployment rate is a meaningless number. The rate can decline for no other reason than people unable to find jobs drop out of the work force. You are not counted in the work force if you are discouraged about finding a job and no longer look for a job. The phenomena of discouraged workers shows up in the measure of the...

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12 Reasons Why Gold Price Will Rebound and Make New Highs in 2014

Investor sentiment towards precious metals is at the lowest level in over a decade. Many analysts believe the bull market is over and are calling for sub-$ 1,000 gold in 2014. Even diehard gold bugs are losing faith, as the correction has been longer and more severe than most had anticipated. So, is it time to throw in the towel? Is the bull market in precious metals really over? In order to answer this question, I thought it would be constructive to re-visit the fundamental drivers of the gold price and determine if anything changed over the past two years to weaken the bullish case. My conclusion is that nearly all of the fundamental factors that have been driving the gold price higher in the past decade have only strengthened in the past two years. Now that the correction has most likely run its course, I expect gold to rebound into the close of the year and bounce sharply higher in 2014. Here are the 12 reasons why… #1 – Rapidly Growing Debt Just one day after President Barack Obama signed into law a bipartisan deal to end the government shutdown and avoid default, the US debt surged a record $ 328 billion, the first day the government was able to borrow money. The U.S. national debt has increased by more than a trillion dollars in the past 12 months. This pushed the total debt above $ 17 trillion for the first time in history. As the debt increases and GDP growth slows, the debt-to-GDP ratio will continue to rise at an accelerating pace. This is simple math and it dictates an ongoing slide in the purchasing power of the dollar and rise in the purchasing power of real assets and particularly monetary metals such as gold and silver. The following charts show the steepening rise in total public debt and the debt-to-GDP ratio of the United States. Many economists view a debt-to-GDP ratio of 100% as the point of no return. It is a slippery slope that is certain to push higher at an accelerated rate in the coming years. Note that alternate calculations of the total debt including unfunded liabilities and off-balance sheet items, puts the number somewhere closer to $ 100 trillion or more than 5 times the official figure. This equates to a debt-to-GDP ratio of over 500%, not the 100% charted below. Takeaway: The total level of debt and the debt-to-GDP ratio have both increased substantially in the past two years. This is bullish for gold, as precious metals have a positive correlation to total debt levels. #2 – Inept Government and Partisan Bickering...

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Gold, Silver and the Debt Ceiling

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 To paraphrase William Shakespeare, “the debt ceiling drama is a tale told by idiots, full of sound and political fury, signifying nothing.” We now have a reprieve for three months – the 11th hour deal, complete with payoffs and the usual corruption, will keep the world safe for more ineptitude, deficit spending, administrative hypocrisy and the guarantee of a sequel. All is well! Celebration! Champagne! Cut to a prime-time commercial promoting big government and Obamacare… And back in the real world where people work and support their families, life goes on, few noticed the lack of government “services,” and in three months we will be blessed with another episode of our “Congressional Reality Show.” Gold, Silver, and National Debt Examine the following graph. It is a graph of smoothed* annual gold and silver prices and the official U.S. national debt since 1971 when the dollar lost all gold backing and was “temporarily” allowed to float against all other unbacked debt based currencies. All values start at 1.0 in 1971. The legend does not show which line represents gold, silver, or the national debt. Why? Because it hardly matters! Government spends too much money to perform a few essential services and to buy votes, wars, and welfare, and thereby increases its debt almost every year, while gold and silver prices, on average, match the increases in accumulated national debt. Our 435 representatives, 100 senators, and the administration listened to their corporate backers and chose to increase the debt ceiling, continue spending as usual, not “rock the boat,” and carry on with the serious business of politics and payoffs for another three months. It is safe to say that, on average, gold and silver will continue rising, along with the national debt, as they all have for the past 42 years. Further, like the national debt, both gold and silver (and probably most consumer prices) will increase substantially from here, until some traumatic “reset” occurs. What sort of reset? A “black swan” event that is unpredictable, by definition. Middle East war escalation. Derivative melt-down. A dollar collapse when foreigners say “enough” to the dollar debasement policies pursued by the Fed and the US government. A collapse of the Euro or Yen for any number of reasons. A banker admits that most of the official gold supposedly held in New York, London, and Fort Knox is gone and has been sold to China, India, and Russia. You name the false flag operation. My guess: Gold and silver prices will rise gradually for a while, and then quite rapidly after one of the above “financial icebergs” smashes...

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China and gold

Xinhua, China’s official press agency on Sunday ran an op-ed article which kicked off as follows: “As U.S. politicians of both political parties are still shuffling back and forth between the White House and the Capitol Hill without striking a viable deal to bring normality to the body politic they brag about, it is perhaps a good time for the befuddled world to start considering building a de-Americanized world.” China does have a broad strategy to prepare for this event. She is encouraging the creation of an international market in her own currency through the twin centres of Hong Kong and London, side-lining New York, and she is actively promoting through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) non-dollar trade settlement across the whole of Asia. She has also been covertly building her gold reserves while overtly encouraging her citizens to accumulate gold as well. There can be little doubt from these actions that China is preparing herself for the demise of the dollar, at least as the world’s reserve currency. Central to insuring herself and her citizens against this outcome is gold. China has invested heavily in domestic mine production and is now the largest producer at an estimated 440 tonnes annually, and she is also looking to buy up gold mines elsewhere. Little or none of the domestically mined gold is seen in the market, so it is a reasonable assumption the Government is quietly accumulating all her own production without it becoming publicly available. Recorded demand for gold from China’s private sector has escalated to the point where their demand now accounts for significantly more than the rest of the world’s mine production. The Shanghai Gold Exchange is the mainland monopoly for physical delivery, and Hong Kong acts as a separate interacting hub. Between them in the first eight months of 2013 they have delivered 1,730 tonnes into private hands, or an annualised rate of 2,600 tonnes. The world ex-China mines an estimated 2,260 tonnes, leaving a supply deficit for not only the rest of gold-hungry South-east Asia and India, but the rest of the world as well. It is this fact that gives meat to the suspicion that Western central bank monetary gold is being supplied keep the price down, because ETF sales and diminishing supplies of non-Asian scrap have been wholly insufficient to satisfy this surge in demand. So why is the Chinese Government so keen on gold? The answer most likely involves geo-politics. And here it is worth noting that through the SCO, China and Russia with the support of most of the countries in between them are building an economic bloc with a common...

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